As the first month of their self-proclaimed “very important” offseason comes to a close, the St. Louis Cardinals have been hard at work internally.
It’s been four weeks since the baseball season ended in St. Louis, and except for the growing optimism that franchise icon Yadier Molina will join next year’s coaching staff, the organization has been mostly quiet. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been using October to ensure the organization will be set up for success when the gates open to free agency and trade talks after the World Series.
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There’s no denying the magnitude of the next few months. After perhaps the most embarrassing season of the DeWitt family ownership tenure, the Cardinals have stated their intentions to field a competing club next year. Doing so would require revamping the pitching staff, which is obviously no easy task.
The Cardinals made a series of 40-man roster moves last week, claiming infielder Buddy Kennedy off of waivers from the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday before reassigning five players on Thursday. Kyle Leahy, Irving Lopez and Juniel Querecuto were outrighted to Triple-A Memphis, while Andrew Suárez and Casey Lawrence were also outrighted but elected free agency instead. With Adam Wainwright’s official retirement filed, the 40-man roster stands at 35 players, not counting the five players on the 60-day injured list (Dylan Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Packy Naughton, Wilking Rodríguez and Guillermo Zuñiga).
Most of October’s moves were more or less housekeeping actions used to clear roster space for November. The highest priority for the Cardinals at the moment remains finalizing their major-league coaching staff for 2024. This includes deciding on Molina’s potential employment. Both parties have expressed high interest, and Molina was quoted on WKAQ-580, a radio station in Puerto Rico, saying “there is a 90 percent chance” he will join the coaching ranks next season.
In an interview with @WKAQ580, Yadier Molina talked about his future as a coach in the Major Leagues. Here is what he said. #STLCards pic.twitter.com/bjRyZqArdL
— Luis Nolla/550 KTRS (@luisminolla17) October 24, 2023
Once the World Series concludes, expect the Cardinals to be among the busiest teams in November. There is a wide array of questions about next year’s roster, spanning far beyond the obvious need for pitching. St. Louis can begin addressing those questions as soon as either the Texas Rangers or Arizona Diamondbacks hoists the Commissioner’s Trophy within the next week. Mozeliak won’t completely fix his roster in one month, of course, but the decisions he makes in November will be telling as to how the rest of the winter could unfold.
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Let’s take a look at three key dates in November that Mozeliak and the Cardinals are focusing on as they set their sights on their most imperative offseason in years.
GM meetings: Nov. 6 to Nov. 9
Usually regarded as the unofficial kickoff to the offseason, Major League Baseball’s general managers’ meetings are set for the second week of November in Scottsdale, Ariz. Mozeliak, along with general manager Mike Girsch, and assistant general managers Moisés Rodríguez and Randy Flores, are usually all in attendance, along with the front-office executives of the 29 other teams and various other player agents and media outlets.
Unlike the Winter Meetings, rarely are major moves made at the GM meetings. Instead, these sessions are used to allow executives to start putting out feelers for who and what might become available over the upcoming weeks. Preliminary trade concepts are discussed between teams while player agents meet in earnest to start discussing their impeding free-agent clients. Often, insights into an organization’s game plan come to light during this week, as executives begin to lay down their foundation. This year, the Cardinals’ foundation is already well known. Mozeliak and Co. will be searching for three major-league-ready starting pitchers and will use all avenues: free agency, the trade market and the international market, in their attempts to do so. Relief pitching is also high on the organization’s priority list. St. Louis will likely look to add at least two high-leverage arms to bolster the bullpen behind Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos.
While blockbuster trades or signings likely won’t take place during these meetings, things usually start coming into motion shortly after. In other words, MLB’s hot stove officially begins to warm during the GM meetings.
Free agency begins: 5 days after the World Series
Officially, eligible players can become free agents the day after the end of the World Series. However, there is a five-day buffer period until players can sign with a new team. This five-day window is an exclusive timeframe in which players can only negotiate with their current team. Once that window passes, there are no limitations in free agency, and a player is free to sign with whomever he chooses.
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The five-day period after the World Series is a key deadline for several other factors. All contract options (team, player or vesting) must be exercised within this window. The Cardinals do not have any contract options to decide on with any player currently on the 40-man roster.
Whether or not a team or player exercises an option will help structure the free-agent market. For example, Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman has a player option for $21 million for 2024. If he declines to exercise that option, he will become an unrestricted free agent, further bolstering the pitching market. San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Alex Cobb has a club option worth $10 million for 2024, meaning San Francisco must decide whether or not to exercise his option. If the club declined, Cobb would become a free agent.
Contract options are not to be confused with qualifying offers, which are due (you guessed it) five days after the World Series. A qualifying offer is a one-year contract that can be made to a player who had previously never received one in his career (usually first-time free agents) and who had spent the entire season on the major-league roster. This year’s qualifying offer will be approximately $20.5 million. If a team makes a qualifying offer to a player, the player has 10 days to decide whether or not to accept it. If a player declines the qualifying offer, he immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent.
Clearly, the first week after the World Series is a hectic one. The free-agent market won’t be fully formed until after the five-day window, which usually coincides with the end of the GM meetings. Still, even though the market is far from set, the Cardinals have identified Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray as starting pitchers they will look into, according to multiple sources. This list is likely to grow, with pitchers such as Kyle Hendricks, Michael Wacha and Eduardo Rodriguez among the many players who have either options or opt-outs to consider within the next two weeks. There’s also no ruling out a reunion with former Cardinals such as Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks. The team came close to inking Hicks to a three-year extension before the trade deadline, but when the deal fell through, the organization elected to trade Hicks to capitalize on his value.
Non-tender deadline for arbitration-eligible players: Nov. 17
The Cardinals have nine players eligible for arbitration this year. However, just because a player is set for arbitration does not mean he will automatically be tendered a contract. The non-tender deadline serves as a way for a team to cut a player who is not eligible for free agency. If a team does not tender a player a contract, he becomes a free agent.
MLB Trade Rumors calculated approximate arbitration salaries for all nine players. Tommy Edman ($6.5 million) and Tyler O’Neill ($5.5 million) should see the highest one-year contracts. Dakota Hudson ($3.7 million), Ryan Helsley ($3 million) and Andrew Knizner ($2 million) represent the second tier, with first-year arbitration-eligible Dylan Carlson ($1.8 million), Jake Woodford ($1.1 million), Jacob Barnes ($1 million) and JoJo Romero ($900,000) closing out the list.
Of the above names, Barnes is a candidate to be non-tendered. Woodford and Hudson are candidates as well, but to a lesser extent given the organization’s dire need for pitching depth, even at the Triple-A level. The Cardinals have a decision to make regarding O’Neill’s future. The 28-year-old is entering his final year of arbitration and will be a free agent after the 2024 season. He is also coming off a drastically disappointing season, one that was again plagued by injuries. O’Neill played in just 72 games for St. Louis this year and has been hampered by injuries throughout his career. With an already-crowded outfield, the Cardinals could look to trade O’Neill, but he would be a one-year rental coming off a low production rate and would hardly generate a profitable return.
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The Cardinals will likely non-tender at least one player to shore up additional room on the 40-man roster. But even with all the deadlines and dates to keep track of, Mozeliak’s priority remains the same. The Cardinals need pitching, and lots of it, if they want to field a competitive club in 2024. In just a few days, the organization will be able to start putting that plan into motion.
(File photo of John Mozeliak: Jeff Curry / USA Today)
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